Quantitative Scheduling Analysis – it is about Time: Construction Scheduling Risk in Limited Recourse Financed Projects

2020 MSc (Distinction) – dissertation graded 81%

Abstract

Using limited recourse finance to fund new infrastructure development subjects project procurement to a rigorous level of critical analysis.  The National Audit Office has repeatedly confirmed Project Finance Initiative (here-in “PFI”) procured infrastructure built within agreed timescales and to agreed budget.

Yet industry enquiry confirms the basis of schedule risk analysis undertaken in PFI was weighted towards qualitative expert opinion and experience, and largely ignored probabilistic tools.

This dissertation uses open interviews and supporting empirical research to confirm on-time, on budget was indeed achieved and that quantitative analytics were not central to this achievement.  It also reflects upon the very colloquial nature of these projects, the lack of partnerships that result, and presents a case to better reflect upon these wider characteristics and negative implications.

This dissertation concludes that data does not live well in colloquially set up project environments – PFI being a meaningful reflection upon a static procurement framework in a dynamic setting – and gives a modest attempt at looking at projects through a different lens.  The inference, if any is to be sought, is that likelihood of success may be indicated by the framework within which projects are set up.  Suggesting more enquiry should be made by potential project actors as to whether colloquial or collaborative endeavour lives within a project’s core.